The central parity rate of the yuan strengthened 69 basis points to 6.4030 against the U.S. dollar on May 27, data from the China Foreign Exchange Trade System showed.

Recently, the RMB exchange rate has gone through a wave of appreciation, especially since the beginning of April, the RMB exchange rate has been rising against the US dollar.

Yue, head of the securities research institute Kang Chongli thinks, at present, our country import amount of growth comes mainly from overseas commodity prices, the follow-up if the yuan to rise further, the commodity price growth is expected to slow down, or even decline, thus weakening commodity prices caused by imported inflation and imported cost pressures faced by enterprises in our country.

RMB appreciation, some people rejoice and others worry

Pleasant is the import enterprise. Strong RMB, for import enterprises is good. Wen Bin, chief researcher of Minsheng Bank, believes that the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate will reduce the procurement costs of import enterprises and increase profits. Especially at the moment, the prices of some bulk commodities continue to rise sharply, and the prices of some varieties even reach new highs. The import cost of raw materials for enterprises increases. Therefore, the appreciation of RMB will also reduce the pressure brought by the surge in commodity prices.

Worry about exporters. The appreciation of the yuan is bad for exports. As the cost of export products increases, the competitiveness of export enterprises' products in the international market will be affected. At the same time, there will also be exchange rate risk, resulting in exchange loss. The appreciation of the RMB, combined with the rise of raw materials and shipping prices, will have a greater impact on exports and further compress the profits and living space of small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises.

Engaged in textile foreign trade at this time really feel the appreciation of the RMB caused by the loss of goods, especially our textile foreign trade. Because there is a huge time difference between the quotation of our fabric products and the return of the payment, it usually takes 3-4 months for quotation, production and delivery, and it usually takes 2-4 months for customers to pay off the payment after receiving the goods.

It is obviously impossible for the exchange rate at the time of quotation and the exchange rate at the time of collection to remain unchanged for half a year, especially since the RMB has been in the trend of appreciation in these two years. Any offer at any time will feel underpriced after a few months.

The sample cost is not paid, and the payment is delayed

Foreign trade customers have always been the favorites in the eyes of textile makers. The most important thing is that, compared with some domestic customers, foreign trade customers tend to be more timely in payment, and there is little delay in deduction.

According to a person in charge of a textile enterprise, they mainly made domestic orders before 2015, and it was common for them to meet deductions, delays or even non-payment in the normal process of doing business. Up to now, domestic customers still have about 4 million yuan of payment for goods, which basically cannot be returned. After 2015, the company turned to foreign trade, and its customers were mainly Vietnam, Bangladesh, India and other underdeveloped countries. Although these countries were relatively backward and poor, there was almost no random deduction or non-payment on the payment of goods, unless there was a problem with the order.

Textile people always have a good impression on foreign trade customers, and because of this, every foreign exhibition, there are always domestic enterprises competing for foreign customers. However, the favorable payment methods of foreign trade customers have changed under the impact of the epidemic last year.

According to the person in charge of a foreign trade company in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, he basically gave up orders from Indian customers this year because the price of orders was too low. The profit of each meter of cloth was only about 1 yuan, and the payment was in arrears.

One important reason why foreign trade enterprises have the problem of payment for goods is that last year's epidemic had a great impact on downstream garment enterprises, and many garment brands even went bankrupt. As a result, traders undertaking garment orders could not settle the payment for goods, and naturally there was a lack of funds to pay the upstream fabric enterprises.

Deposit production, take goods popular

Under the epidemic situation, orders were not many, but if the last remaining orders still have payment problems, then the blow to textile enterprises will be quite huge.

"We do outdoor fabrics, and only do foreign trade. The exchange rate is also a big blow to us. Many of our orders are quoted when the exchange rate is 7 and received when it is 6.5. Considering the epidemic situation in Europe and the United States, the risk of payment for goods and exchange rate in the later stage is too great, we decide to reproduce with 30% deposit for all customers first, and pick up the goods with 70% payment at last, so as to perfectly avoid the risk of exchange rate and payment default. If the customer doesn't accept it, we'd rather not take the order than lose the principal." "Said a textile trader.

Some foreign trade customers are breaking their good impression left in the past, domestic fabric suppliers will naturally change the past way of trade, especially the way of payment.

Of course, not only foreign trade, customers are also quietly changing.

Recently, textile enterprises have made it clear that they will fully implement the delivery with money, which is of great significance to break the previous "credit sales" mode. At present, in the weaving market, loan delivery and credit sales still coexist, but the price of the two payment methods is usually lower than the cash sales, even if the cash is a new customer, credit sales is an old customer, after all, the security of payment is above everything else.

Reminder: do not bet on RMB appreciation or devaluation, long bet will lose!

The managed floating exchange rate regime based on market supply and demand with reference to a basket of currencies is suitable for China's national conditions and should be adhered to for a long time, according to the Seventh Working Meeting of the Self-Discipline Mechanism of the National Foreign Exchange Market.

Under this regime, the exchange rate cannot be used as a tool, either to depreciate to stimulate exports or to appreciate to offset rising commodity prices. The key is to properly manage expectations and resolutely crack down on all acts of maliciously manipulating the market and maliciously creating unilateral expectations.

The meeting believes that the current foreign exchange market is generally balanced. In the future, there will be many market and policy factors affecting the exchange rate, and the RMB may appreciate or depreciate.

No one can accurately predict the direction of exchange rates. Whether in the short or medium to long term, uncertainty of exchange rate is inevitable, and two-way fluctuations are normal.

The meeting stressed that enterprises and financial institutions should actively adapt to the state of two-way exchange rate fluctuations. Enterprises should focus on their main business, establish a "risk neutral" concept, avoid deviating from the risk neutral "foreign exchange speculation" behavior, do not bet on the appreciation or depreciation of the RMB exchange rate, long-term bets will be lost.

The impact of the continued appreciation of the RMB

Market participants believe that under the current cycle of rising commodity prices, the appreciation of the renminbi to hedge the pressure of the rising commodity prices, China's main imports account for the growth of overseas commodity prices, driven by continued appreciation in the yuan import enterprises under the cost pressure will be reduced.

In terms of export, in the short term, the continued appreciation of RMB will weaken the advantage of domestic commodity export. However, at present, the domestic epidemic is well controlled, and the epidemic situation in Europe and the United States and other economies is repeated, and the setback in global supply capacity will continue to drive China's export or offset the impact of currency appreciation.

Of course, there are also views that the continuous appreciation of the RMB is equivalent to an increase in the cost of imports from China in overseas markets, which will affect domestic exports and further increase the supply of domestic commodities, which is conducive to the work of ensuring the supply and stabilizing the price of domestic bulk commodities.