As the temperature continues to drop, cotton leaf shedding speed up, Xinjiang cotton picking into the peak. October 10-17, futures daily reporters in southern Xinjiang cotton production situation conducted a comprehensive investigation. In combination with the recent understanding of the northern Xinjiang cotton market situation, the new season cotton market appeared different from the previous changes.

Land: Cotton has been collected into a "snow mountain"

In the late autumn season, the poplar trees in Southern Xinjiang "bloom" with golden leaves, together with the endless white cotton fields, plus red apples, burning sunset, rolling mountains, constitute a beautiful landscape. In this harvest season, the seed cotton purchase price rose nearly twice as much as last year, every cotton farmers face are hanging a happy smile. However, futures daily reporters in the survey found that many cotton farmers are not in a hurry to pick cotton, but spend more energy on the edge of the cotton field leveling out a large area of land. Why is that?

Hu Friendship, a large cotton plant in Xinhe county, told reporters that this year's cotton growth and development period delay 7-15 days, growth uniformity is not ideal, part of the cotton plant has been the whole plant batting, and part of the cotton plant is still hanging a large number of green peach, cotton farmers in waiting for the cotton peach all mature after picking. Most of the cotton has been picked by this time of year, and this year has only just begun. This year, however, the harvest rate is expected to be further improved and the picking time more concentrated. Once the harvest begins, progress will be rapid, and cotton farmers have a safe bet. As for why cotton farmers want to level off land on the edge of cotton fields, it is one of the main manifestations of cotton farmers' reluctance to sell and equivalent holding goods.

"In previous years, cotton will be immediately sent to the ginning plant for sale after picking, but this year's expectations of cotton farmers are higher, especially by the early stage of the new cotton market, hand picked cottons and other acquisition prices are high, and many cotton farmers plan to pile up the picked cotton in the ground equivalent." Hu yiyi said that cotton farmers have a relatively large amount of land transfer, coupled with the contract of relatives and friends of the land, the volume of seed cotton picking, they do not have enough warehouses to store. Therefore, a temporary cotton storage yard is arranged on the edge of the cotton field before the seed cotton is picked.

Tumushuk city and other cotton areas, the reporter saw a lot of cotton fields have piled up cotton stacks. As southern Xinjiang "egg-laying machine" less, most of the cotton farmers here rent is with a large iron bucket picking machine, full of a bucket poured seed cotton enough to have a ton of weight, soon can pile up a "cotton snow mountain" in the ground.

According to the feedback of cotton farmers, some cotton plants this year to the later period of growth is relatively greedy for green, and the tractor spraying deciduous agent is not uniform also has a certain relationship. In some cotton fields, tractors had knocked down many cotton plants, and there was a significant difference in the growth of cotton on the ground compared with cotton on the edge of the field and cotton in the field, which left more green peach and cotton leaves in the seed cotton picked.

Compared with southern Xinjiang, northern Xinjiang picking progress faster, and the proportion of machine picking is higher, while most cotton farmers also use the cotton "egg machine", picked cotton quality is high, less impurities.

Cotton farmer: Tarpaulin a cover is not for sale

"I'll pick them in a few days. I'm in no hurry. The cotton in the field is still growing." Wen Xinjian, a cotton farmer in Tiemenguan city, sighed that when the seed cotton of the new season was listed in the early stage, the purchase price in some areas of northern Xinjiang was up to more than 11.5 yuan/kg, but now the gin mill in southern Xinjiang actually wanted to purchase a large amount of cotton near 10.5 yuan/kg, a bit of a "daydream".

On October 11, futures daily reporters in tiegan city cotton area survey found that only one of the four surrounding cotton ginning plants in the acquisition, but there are still many large vehicles selling cotton, which is somewhat different from wen Xinjian said that cotton farmers are reluctant to sell cotton.

A from shandong are xinjiang cotton industry's large-scale development of the company's business staff, told reporters that the reason why local appears such a phenomenon, on the one hand, cotton farmers and cotton ginning mill are very strong in game point of view, on the other hand also shows that cotton or cotton ginning mill, internal differences, late for seed cotton purchase price expectations are not consistent.

According to understand, with the speeding up of the land circulation in xinjiang in recent years, combined with relevant institutions to strengthen the management of land, water resources, as well as the adjustment of agricultural planting structure, the xinjiang cotton planting more and more advantage area to the central, it is important to cotton farmers and cotton ginning mill, cotton ginning mill and agricultural materials supply company, cotton ginning mill and investment institutions and futures companies risk management and other avenues of cooperation and model more and more, The operation process and techniques are becoming more and more mature, and the corresponding cotton farmers are facing a continuous reduction of financial pressure, income is increasingly stable. Therefore, in this year's new production of seed cotton purchase price high open high go, in the cotton yield is not as good as the early estimate of the support, some cotton farmers breeding a strong hold to sell psychology.

"The cotton picked by our family was sold to the ginning factory on the same day 'according to the market', but the ginning factory has a cooperative relationship with us, and we sold it for 11.2 yuan/kg in the early stage." 2500 mu of cotton fields in hutubi county the wall contracting Zhu Dajie said that in previous years, under the condition of normal production, cotton per mu can earn 2500 yuan net and even more this year, seed cotton purchase price higher than last year 4, 5 yuan/kg, higher income of cotton is changing the future pattern of cotton industry: one is the farmers grow enthusiasm, cotton cultivation become the mainstream trend of land circulation; Second, the involvement of non-industry capital and market entities is increasing, and the main structure is changing. Third, the cost of agricultural materials and land transfer has increased significantly. In some areas, the "intermediary cost" of land transfer has risen from 50 yuan/mu in the past to 200 yuan/mu, and the land rent has risen from 500-800 yuan/mu to 1000-1300 yuan/mu. If we consider the improvement of agricultural materials and other prices, the planting cost of cotton next year will be 3000 yuan/mu. This means that next year's cotton yield per unit area is 450 kg/mu, and the seed cotton price is 7 yuan/kg to break even, but in addition to this year's higher seed cotton purchase price, over the years the whole xinjiang seed cotton purchase price is less than 7 yuan/kg.

Some of the cotton fields in Aksu City, the reporter saw that the white cotton is in full bloom, but the picking progress is not fast, on the one hand, part of the cotton farmers deliberately postponed picking time, on the other hand, some cotton strains are still growing. In addition, the slow turnover of the picking machine and the tight diesel supply in some areas are also not conducive to the smooth development of cotton picking work.

From the perspective of the overall mentality of the current fields (cotton farmers, although rised higher expectations, psychological is strong, but because the seed cotton purchase price has been stuck for days and days in a row, and part of the cotton ginning mill stopped to receive even lower purchase price, especially the relevant institutions cast heavy inventory cotton, zheng cotton futures of center of gravity down, hold "tarpaulin cover is not to sell" mentality of cotton farmers is declining, After all, this year's seed cotton purchase price is rare for many years high, early bagging for an might be a better choice.

Output: The pattern of production reduction is basically determined

"As a seed company, we always pay close attention to the change of cotton yield per unit area and total yield in Xinjiang, and require business personnel to report the data learned every night." According to korla city a cotton seed company principal introduction, this company distributes in whole xinjiang the clerk of each district has nearly 200, from this year cotton begins to pick since the yield data of summary, unit yield and total yield are not as expected, very common in previous years 450, 500 kg/mu became "luxury".

Futures daily reporters in part of the cotton farmers and agricultural technical personnel after communication, compared with last year, a lot of cotton fields in the reduction of 50 kg/mu. The reasons are as follows: first, the low temperature, rainfall and strong wind in some cotton areas this spring delayed the planting time of cotton and caused the reseeding of some cotton fields. Second, some cotton farmers in order to make cotton plants more cotton peach, in the management of the top is not timely, then due to the lack of light and temperature drop faster, cotton plants green; Third, in the later period of cotton growth, the lack of light in many areas of Xinjiang is not conducive to the top of cotton plant peach batting. In addition, xinjiang cotton planting area slightly reduced this year, coupled with less than expected per unit yield, total yield estimates have not been estimated so optimistic. Previous data from relevant agencies showed that cotton planting area in Xinjiang this year was 37.18 million mu, with an estimated output of 5.2 million tons.

"In terms of acquisitions, the yield per unit and lint percentage declined compared to last year." Tiemenguan city, a ggin plant in charge of the reduction of some cotton fields more than 15 percent, some high-yielding areas may be reduced by 80 kg/mu, the initial estimate of xinjiang's total cotton output of 5 million tons.

In the cotton field field investigation reporters see, in previous years not common green peach this year there are a lot of individual cotton fields of cotton or even the whole plant is still 荗 sheng. In addition, many of the top peaches were either small or had a withered bud, which greatly affected the yield. A busy cotton farmer in the fields said that in a year when seed cotton prices were average, money depended on the top peach.

Gin Mill: Keep calm

This year, the new cotton price is high, and in recent years xinjiang ginning plant capacity has a great relationship. Especially this year, many ginning plants are new on the production line, in the seed cotton before the formation of a strong atmosphere of panic buying. However, faced with the situation of seed cotton purchase price one day higher than one day, many ginning plants instead calm down, not slow acquisition, is to control the number of acquisition, and even some of the daily small price reduction strategy.

It is understood that from July to September this year, in the face of more optimistic market expectations and lucrative downstream market situation, some ginning plants in the cotton futures and options market to buy operations, the logic is that since the new cotton price is expected to open high, it is better to lock the source of goods when the futures price is low. From the final result, this part of the ginning plant obtained a better comprehensive income. On the one hand, the acquisition cost of cotton was successfully reduced through the futures market. On the other hand, it ensures the supply of raw materials for downstream orders. Most importantly, when the seed cotton purchase price is high, they can also be purchased at a higher price, and dare to sell into the hedging operation in the futures market.

"Our cotton gin factory is leased to a large cotton purchasing and selling group, and the price and quantity of seed cotton are entirely up to the decision-making level of the group to discuss. Faced with farmers' reluctance to sell at a low price, our strategy is' do what you want '." Yuli county a cotton ginning mill head, said the group's business covers the cotton industry chain, not only have 1 million mu of cotton planting, and has dozens of cotton ginning mill, at the same time also has textile mills, seed cotton prices high, group of cotton planting benefit is good, although there are certain pressure of the cotton ginning mill in operation, but can completely addressed by within the group, For example, in terms of raw materials, only cotton planted by the group can provide a large part. Therefore, in the face of high seed cotton prices, the group's underling giniers basically do not follow the trend of acquisition. Into the middle and late October, seed cotton purchase price has fallen, at this time to buy again, the cost must have an advantage.

Futures daily reporters in southern Xinjiang research found that the current gin mill compared with the past to be a lot more complex. In the past, the ginning plant was just a cotton processing workshop, simple business, but now, the ginning plant takes on more business, with more functions. It can be said that the living environment of the gin plant has changed. Cotton groups, for example, see the gin as a conduit between cotton farmers and downstream mills. The industrial group provides cotton farmers with all kinds of agricultural materials and financing through the ginning plant, and at the same time signs the seed cotton purchase contract with the cotton farmers, so as to grasp the cotton resources in the hand early, benefiting the farmers and facilitating the enterprise operation. At the same time, in order to meet the requirement of the downstream textile industry group, constantly improve the quality of cotton, also through the cotton ginning mill and seed company, cooperation, promote cotton seeds, and then through the single charge, single, single cotton ginning mill machining operation, such as the high quality cotton to sell at a higher price to the downstream enterprises with special needs, so as to realize the high added value of cotton yield.

Alar city cotton professionals Li Junwei told reporters, the current southern and northern xinjiang seed cotton has been listed, it is estimated that the mainstream price of machine cotton will be stable at 10.3 yuan/kg, most of the cotton mill will be fully launched acquisition, the next 10 days or so, xinjiang seed cotton acquisition progress will be greatly accelerated.

Acquisition: seed cotton quotation is increasingly stable

Futures Daily reporters combed the changes in xinjiang seed cotton purchase price since mid-September and found that the whole showed three stages of high open high, oscillating down and gradually becoming stable. The first stage, the mid to late September, hand picking cotton in xinjiang, especially after hand picked xumian listed, leave high to go high market price, but due to the seed cotton only sporadic, by this time the price is not representative, and hand picked xumian USES special, high added value. Entering October, especially during the National Day holiday, boosted by the rising price of American cotton, coupled with a large number of investment institutions outside the industry, with the comprehensive promotion of northern Xinjiang cotton picking work, seed cotton purchase price along the way, the highest price in some producing areas exceeded 11.5 yuan/kg. In the second stage, faced with the increasingly high seed cotton purchase price, the risk awareness of the cotton mill increased, the cotton farmers held the goods and wait-and-see, and the market formed a game pattern. At this time, the relevant institutions strengthened the control of cotton price, and the futures price of bulk commodities at home and abroad fell from the peak, and the cotton mill began to try to lower the purchase price. In some cotton areas, the seed cotton purchase price directly decreased from 11.5 yuan/kg to 10.7 yuan/kg, followed by a quotation of 10.3-10.5 yuan/kg. Cotton farmers in the face of falling prices, still believe that later will rise back, so that the market in the peak picking season appeared "price without market" phenomenon. The third stage, mid to late October, joint action by many factors, especially the listed in seed cotton, cotton futures continue to fall, part of the cotton farmers began to accept the price 10.5 yuan/kg, cotton ginning mill also enlarge the volume, the market price is stable, for some regions further cut the price to 10.3 yuan/kg.

In the investigation, the reporter found that the cotton seed impurities purchased by the ginning plant this year were too high, and the workers hired by the ginning plant had to pick out the green peach and cotton leaves mixed among them in addition to the three silk. However, due to the improvement of processing technology, reprocessing related institutions this year to strengthen the supervision of high moisture, especially water cotton, the quality of processed lint, or good, some of the new production of lint has been in 23000 yuan/ton near the small batch transaction.